Zeta Global Grows Fast but Dilution Lowers Fair Value
Feb 27, 2025
Zeta Global had a strong year, with revenue up 38%, large customer count rising 15%, and net revenue retention at 114%. Q4 was its best quarter yet, with nearly 50% sales growth. As a leader in AI-driven marketing, Zeta projects 20%+ annual growth, targeting $2 billion in revenue by 2028. However, new details impact fair value: management now expects a 16% free cash flow margin—below my 20% target—and has issued nearly 30 million shares for acquisitions and performance stock units, significantly diluting public shareholders. Accounting for these factors, our fair value drops to $18, aligning with its current trading price.
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Watch List
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| NTNX | 30.39% |
| SE | 34.35% |
| SNOW | 13.51% |
| APPF | 4.69% |
| S | -3.22% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
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vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
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| ADSK | -3.80% |
| NOW | 2.73% |
| ABNB | -24.50% |
| FTNT | -0.71% |
| TEAM | 4.76% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates