Zeta Global Grows Fast but Dilution Lowers Fair Value
Feb 27, 2025
Zeta Global had a strong year, with revenue up 38%, large customer count rising 15%, and net revenue retention at 114%. Q4 was its best quarter yet, with nearly 50% sales growth. As a leader in AI-driven marketing, Zeta projects 20%+ annual growth, targeting $2 billion in revenue by 2028. However, new details impact fair value: management now expects a 16% free cash flow margin—below my 20% target—and has issued nearly 30 million shares for acquisitions and performance stock units, significantly diluting public shareholders. Accounting for these factors, our fair value drops to $18, aligning with its current trading price.
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Watch List
| INTU | 12.66% |
| WDAY | -12.08% |
| VEEV | 12.58% |
| PSTG | -10.30% |
| CMG | 29.95% |
| RDDT | -4.62% |
| NTNX | 14.57% |
| CRWD | 73.44% |
| SE | 17.55% |
| SNOW | 4.34% |
| APPF | 3.28% |
| PINS | -37.93% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| ASML | -27.68% |
| SEMR | -42.65% |
| TSM | -43.62% |
| ZETA | -36.94% |
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| NYAX | -33.31% |
| MSFT | -32.31% |
| ODD | -35.79% |
| ASR | -31.71% |
| FLYW | -43.03% |
| HRMY | -61.73% |
| GLBE | -30.43% |
| YOU | -35.95% |
| ABNB | -36.72% |
| MELI | -28.86% |
| ADBE | -46.47% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| VTEX | -22.08% |
| CELH | 46.64% |
| TOST | 14.30% |
| CPNG | -19.89% |
| HIMS | -23.00% |
| PAYC | -22.47% |
| MNDY | 8.37% |
| ZS | 24.46% |
| V | -8.22% |
| ADSK | -3.64% |
| NOW | -3.79% |
| FTNT | -5.81% |
| TEAM | -9.95% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates