Sep 29, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG
Statistics
| $48.17 | Share Price |
| $37.00 | Fair Value |
| 30.19% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $66.3 B | Market Cap |
| 14.4% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 13.3% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.5% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
Stock Research and Updates
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Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) is $37.00.
| 14.0% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 11.0% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 11.1% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 7.8% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $35.59 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $1.08 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $37.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Apr 14, 2025
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Watch List
| WDAY | -14.66% |
| VEEV | 10.18% |
| PSTG | -9.24% |
| INTU | 12.14% |
| CMG | 30.19% |
| RDDT | -3.84% |
| NTNX | 14.13% |
| CRWD | 71.52% |
| SE | 19.77% |
| SNOW | 2.45% |
| APPF | 3.69% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| PINS | -38.39% |
| ASML | -27.09% |
| SEMR | -42.13% |
| TSM | -45.61% |
| ZETA | -36.33% |
| GOOG | -52.81% |
| NYAX | -34.93% |
| MSFT | -33.01% |
| ODD | -33.41% |
| ASR | -30.64% |
| FLYW | -42.71% |
| HRMY | -61.01% |
| GLBE | -29.48% |
| YOU | -34.88% |
| ABNB | -36.69% |
| MELI | -27.66% |
| ADBE | -45.75% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| VTEX | -20.00% |
| CELH | 48.96% |
| TOST | 14.30% |
| CPNG | -19.28% |
| HIMS | -22.20% |
| PAYC | -21.97% |
| MNDY | 6.61% |
| ZS | 23.37% |
| V | -8.70% |
| ADSK | -3.90% |
| NOW | -6.74% |
| FTNT | -5.75% |
| TEAM | -11.07% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates