Sep 29, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG
Statistics
| $58.73 | Share Price |
| $33.00 | Fair Value |
| 77.97% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $80.8 B | Market Cap |
| 18.2% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 13.3% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.5% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
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Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) is $33.00.
| 13.5% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 11.0% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 12.1% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 8.2% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $32.12 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $1.12 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $33.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Nov 1, 2024
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Watch List
| SE | 53.62% |
| PINS | 2.38% |
| MA | 9.82% |
| CMG | 77.97% |
| GOOG | 41.40% |
| PSTG | 10.89% |
| SEMR | -5.93% |
| INTU | 26.06% |
| SMAR | 24.20% |
| GTLB | 35.36% |
| CRWD | 64.32% |
| VEEV | 11.64% |
| WDAY | 8.74% |
| SNOW | -6.97% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| ODD | -29.57% |
| ASR | -28.58% |
| PAYC | -25.20% |
| HRMY | -52.24% |
| YOU | -46.20% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| MSFT | -24.59% |
| FLYW | 16.52% |
| CELH | -14.72% |
| TOST | 49.12% |
| CPNG | 2.94% |
| HIMS | -15.96% |
| MNDY | 22.39% |
| GLBE | -1.75% |
| ZS | 22.37% |
| V | -13.61% |
| ADSK | 16.05% |
| NOW | 41.37% |
| ABNB | -21.29% |
| MELI | -22.31% |
| FTNT | -2.38% |
| TEAM | 10.59% |
| ADBE | -15.89% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates