Sep 29, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG
Statistics
| $49.91 | Share Price |
| $33.00 | Fair Value |
| 51.24% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $68.6 B | Market Cap |
| 18.2% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 13.3% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.5% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
Stock Research and Updates
Research Article
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Apr 26, 2024
Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) is $33.00.
| 13.5% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 11.0% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 12.1% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 8.2% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $32.12 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $1.12 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $33.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Nov 1, 2024
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Watch List
| RDDT | 7.71% |
| NTNX | 31.52% |
| CRWD | 63.06% |
| SE | 29.38% |
| SNOW | 7.59% |
| APPF | 4.88% |
| PINS | -23.24% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| SEMR | -38.26% |
| TSM | -38.57% |
| GOOG | -51.98% |
| NYAX | -58.66% |
| MSFT | -31.00% |
| ODD | -31.84% |
| ASR | -28.02% |
| FLYW | -38.06% |
| HRMY | -54.53% |
| YOU | -35.24% |
| ABNB | -32.20% |
| MELI | -29.43% |
| ADBE | -40.48% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| VTEX | -18.40% |
| ZETA | -23.56% |
| CELH | 34.60% |
| TOST | 11.93% |
| CPNG | -15.62% |
| HIMS | -16.74% |
| PAYC | -21.31% |
| MNDY | 6.93% |
| GLBE | -22.43% |
| ZS | 27.08% |
| V | -5.03% |
| ADSK | -3.10% |
| NOW | -3.65% |
| FTNT | -5.29% |
| TEAM | -4.39% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates