Sep 29, 2023
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc
CMG
Statistics
| $61.87 | Share Price |
| $33.00 | Fair Value |
| 87.48% | Price vs Fair Value |
| $85.1 B | Market Cap |
| 18.2% | 3yr Avg Revenue Growth |
| 13.3% | Projected Sales Growth Next Year |
| 15.5% | Free Cash Flow ROIC |
 | Rising Revenues |
| Recurring Revenues |
 | Brand Moat |
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Fair Value Calculation Assumptions
Using a discounted free cash flow model with the following assumptions, the Fair Value estimate for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG) is $33.00.
| 13.5% | Free Cash Flow Margin |
| 11.0% | Discount Rate / Required Rate of Return |
| 12.1% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 1-5) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 1-5) |
| 8.2% | Average Annual Revenue Growth (Years 6-10) |
| -1.0% | Average Annual Share Dilution (Years 6-10) |
| 6.0% | Terminal Growth Rate |
| $32.12 | Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flows |
| $1.12 | Net "Excess" Cash/Debt Per Share |
| $33.00 | Fair Value Estimate (rounded) |
Last updated Nov 1, 2024
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Watch List
| S | 9.41% |
| CRWD | 73.34% |
| SEMR | -15.86% |
| SNOW | 15.48% |
| TSM | -1.89% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| GOOG | -33.69% |
| NYAX | -61.69% |
| ASR | -31.25% |
| PAYC | -28.54% |
| HRMY | -49.59% |
| YOU | -45.59% |
| MELI | -30.27% |
| ADBE | -30.99% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| MSFT | -21.19% |
| ODD | -23.90% |
| FLYW | 4.57% |
| CELH | -15.59% |
| TOST | 31.86% |
| CPNG | -2.38% |
| HIMS | -6.43% |
| MNDY | 15.47% |
| GLBE | 16.55% |
| ZS | 18.59% |
| V | -11.99% |
| ADSK | 11.66% |
| NOW | 50.93% |
| ABNB | -19.63% |
| FTNT | 4.51% |
| TEAM | 14.85% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates