Buy Monday.com!

The last two months have been rather bumpy for the stock market. We've seen mixed results from our Buy List and Hold List stocks, although generally, the overall portfolio has held up pretty well vis-a-vis overall market returns.

I like both market ups and market downs here at GreenDot Stocks. Market ups - obviously - because this is where we earn our return on investment and accomplish what we set out to do here - MAKE MONEY! But the truth of it is, market downs are really where the money is made. They are the "springtime of investing". This is where you sow the seeds that can grow into towering wealth generators over time.

Flat markets... just kinda suck.

Anyway, during this modest downturn, some cohorts have been hit worse than others. And one of those - unsurprisingly - are Israeli-based stocks. Given the very serious and destructive nature of the Israel-Hamas war breaking out, it is only natural for investors to be cautious in this space at present. The outcome of the war, its duration, the potential for escalation into something even larger - all of these are unknowns, and the market HATES unknowns.

We've had two Israel-based stocks on our radar for a bit. Global-e (GLBE), which has been a nice overall winner for us (up 32% and outpacing the S&P 500 by 30% since adding as a buy), has nevertheless seen its stock drop by about 15% since the conflict broke out.

The other is Watch List stock monday.com (MNDY). This stock has come down substantially more, falling from $180 down to $130, a 28% decline. This is despite virtually no meaningful business news specific to the company since reporting Q2 earnings back in mid-August. At a current quote of $132, Monday now sits nearly 29% below our fair value estimate of $185.

I believe that makes it an attractive BUY right now, and it gets added to the Buy List today! We mentioned the geopolitical risks around Israel in the initial review. That remains the key risk, but at this point even more of that risk is priced in, and in hindsight it was higher a few weeks ago. We now know that a conflict has broken out, and the risk remains of escalation, but there is also the potential upside of reconciliation or an eventual end to the conflict.

In any case, Monday's business should keep on chugging along. This is a SaaS project management and workflow software provider that has high switching costs, recurring revenues, and strong growth. Most of its clients (over 80%) are in either North America or Europe. It uses Amazon Web Services (AWS) as its back-end, meaning its software and client's data are widely distributed and not subject to any adverse event in a single geographic location. It has many offices across the world, and HQ in Tel Aviv is somewhat removed from the current fighting areas. This is not a company that a single attack could potentially take out.

In short, I think the positive case we looked at for monday.com still exists in its entirety, while the risk profile has changed only slightly. With over 30% growth trends, a debt free balance sheet, rapidly improving free cash flows, and a very large ($100+ billion) market, this is a stock that should do well for investors for years. BUY!