CrowdStrike Reports After The Fallout
Aug 31, 2024
CrowdStrike finally reported its Q2 results. I was curious to see any early impact the 7/19 global IT outage might have caused. Results were not affected too much, as would be expected (since it happened so late in the quarter), with revenues up 32% and strong cash profitability. Forward numbers are a mixed bag. Ending annualized recurring revenue grew 32%, so backlog growth was strong. But you can see some weakness in CrowdStrike's forward guidance, which came in about $100 million lower than before. I've updated the fair value target to assume muted growth through 2025, and rebounding afterwards. CrowdStrike stays on the Watch List, but the higher risks and lower growth here make a fair value cut warranted. The new number is $215.
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Watch List
| INTU | 28.24% |
| SMAR | 16.04% |
| GTLB | 21.09% |
| CRWD | 20.53% |
| VEEV | 15.93% |
| SNPS | 48.96% |
| WDAY | 4.62% |
| SNOW | -18.81% |
| SE | 10.45% |
| ENLT | -7.06% |
| MA | 7.49% |
| PINS | -0.48% |
| MSFT | -16.55% |
| CMG | 70.06% |
| GOOG | 28.76% |
| TSM | -4.70% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| ODD | -33.70% |
| ASR | -35.44% |
| CELH | -39.84% |
| PAYC | -40.78% |
| HRMY | -41.05% |
| YOU | -36.88% |
| ABNB | -27.31% |
| TEAM | -27.87% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| FLYW | -6.37% |
| TOST | -8.11% |
| CPNG | 1.91% |
| HIMS | -21.10% |
| MNDY | 31.14% |
| GLBE | -15.75% |
| ZS | 1.83% |
| V | -12.66% |
| ADSK | 0.37% |
| NOW | 25.21% |
| MELI | -2.10% |
| FTNT | -19.34% |
| ADBE | -7.28% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates