TSMC Annual Update
Jan 29, 2025
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) recently reported its Q4 and fiscal year earnings. For the year, revenue was up 34%, gross margins improved about 150 basis points, and the firm continues to generate excellent free cash flow. With over 50% of its revenue now coming from 5nm and under chips (where only it and Samsung compete), the moat looks as strong as ever. AI inference in all its forms should continue to drive robust chip demand across data center, smartphone, and even PC spaces. While the firm is not without its risks, this is a "high confidence" stock that - thanks to the "Deepseek freak-out" - is priced at an attractive price. The new fair value target is $269, right on the cusp of our 25% margin of safety requirement. It is very close to a "buy" and could get there within the next few days.
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Watch List
| APPF | 0.31% |
| S | 7.90% |
| NTNX | 29.15% |
| CRWD | 94.58% |
| SEMR | 10.97% |
| SNOW | 23.53% |
| SE | 72.46% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates
Buy List
| TSM | -26.30% |
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| ASR | -28.40% |
| HRMY | -49.18% |
| YOU | -51.94% |
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vs. Fair Value Estimates
Hold List
| ZETA | -15.39% |
| ODD | -23.48% |
| FLYW | -8.26% |
| CELH | 1.94% |
| TOST | 25.67% |
| CPNG | 5.62% |
| HIMS | 76.00% |
| PAYC | -23.36% |
| MNDY | 30.15% |
| GLBE | -2.02% |
| ZS | 25.67% |
| V | -3.45% |
| ADSK | 6.74% |
| NOW | 13.33% |
| ABNB | -17.94% |
| MELI | -22.12% |
| FTNT | 7.86% |
| TEAM | 25.43% |
vs. Fair Value Estimates