Quarterly Report Updates for MNDY, ABNB, GLBE

Let’s take a moment to briefly review the quarterly reports and update price targets for 3 of our followed stocks: Monday.com, Airbnb, and Global-e.

Monday.com (MNDY)

A solid report from Monday.com. Fourth quarter revenue came in at $202.6 million, which was 35% higher than a year ago. For the fiscal year, revenue grew 41%, which was right on target. Customers worth more than $50k annually grew 56%, something we like to see as they are generally "sticky" clients. Net retention was 115%, also a good figure. The firm continues to chug along, developing and gaining new clients for its Work OS product. 2024 revenue guidance works out to about 27-28% growth, right on our expectation. The fair value price gets a small bump to $177 (from a previous $174).

Airbnb (ABNB)

Airbnb also reported a good quarter and fiscal year, with revenues up 18%, gross booking volume up 15%, and nights/experiences booked up 12%. Host metrics continue to be strong, with active listings up 18% year-over-year, and cost cancellations down 35% due to platform improvements. This flies in the face of a lot of reports about hosts leaving the platform - it just isn’t showing up in the metrics.

One surprise to me is Airbnb’s pivot to capital return. The company bought back $2.2 billion in stock during the year, reducing shares by 2.6%. They then announced a new $6 billion buyback! This is quite a change from the dilutive trends we’ve seen in the past. I re-organized the valuation model accordingly, which led to a nice increase in the fair value price to $175 (from a previous $150).

Global-e (GLBE)

International e-commerce facilitator Global-e reported 4th quarter revenues of $185 million, an increase of 33% year-over-year, and topping of a fiscal 2024 that saw revenues increase 39%. Gross merchandise volume was even more impressive, up 42% for the quarter and 45% for the year. The firm expanded both its brand portfolio and penetration with existing brands, with a net revenue retention of 127%. All-around impressive quarter and year. Global-e’s revenue guidance for 2024 disappointed the Street, leading to a decline in the stock. It looks like a good buy to me right now. The fair value estimate gets a bump from $39 to $45.