Updates for 3 Software Giants: Microsoft, Alphabet, Atlassian

As earnings season kicks into full gear, let’s take a look at recent reports from 3 software giants under our followed stocks umbrella: Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Atlassian.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Watch List stock Microsoft reported another strong quarter in its Q3, with sales up 17% overall, and operating income jumping 23%. One big contributor was a full quarter from the recent acquisition of games giant Activision, which increased Xbox division’s revenues by 62% year-over-year. But results were pretty strong across the board. Intelligent Cloud (the Azure division) delivered 21% growth, and even mature segments like Windows (+11%), search (+12%), and Office (+13%) delivered nice gains. This is a juggernaut of a company, the largest in the world by market cap, and it continues to deliver great results.

We’re seeing results that are right in line with our fair value modeling, which gets only a slight bump to $451 from $449. The stock trades a bit below that, but not enough of a margin of safety to add it to the Buy List just yet.

Alphabet (GOOG)

Alphabet, the parent company of Google, delivered a similarly strong quarter. Sales were up 15%, with Google Cloud leading the way with a 28% gain (12% of total revenues). The core ad business grew 13% and represented 77% of sales, while Google’s varied subscription, platform, and devices were up 18%. Overall a solid quarter operationally, as the company continues its return to growth after a weak ’22-23 performance.

The big announcement pushing the stock up was Alphabet’s new dividend program, which will begin in June and pay a $0.20 quarterly dividend going forward. It’s a rather small yield (just 0.50%), but a good first step in the maturation away from money burning "moon shot" bets and into the stable, reliable blue chip Google has really been for many years now. Additionally, the board announced a new $70 billion buyback program that should continue the company’s strong track record of share reductions. Both were welcome affirmations of a more shareholder-friendly use of the company’s huge cash flows.

That said, there were not many surprises here and our model stays mostly intact, with a slight target price increase to $120 from $118. I believe Alphabet is a bit pricey to consider at this point in time.

Atlassian (TEAM)

The final software giant report on our radar is from Atlassian. Here too we see an exceptionally strong report, with sales coming in at 30% higher than a year ago, led by transitions away from stand-alone servicer licenses and into public and private cloud deployments. Most big software firms have undergone this transition, and now Atlassian has completed its journey. Forward metrics were really good too, with deferred revenue up 40%.

The decline in the stock after earnings was a bit puzzling, but it may be due to the announced retirement of co-CEO (and co-founder) Scott Farquhar at the end of August. He will remain on the board, and co-CEO (and other co-founder) Mike Cannon-Brookes will become the sole CEO. This doesn’t really change my thesis at all, as we still have founder-led leadership that I fully expect will continue Atlassian’s winning culture and history of results.

Updating the valuation model, I’m raising the fair value price up to $189 from $181. The stock trades slightly below that at present.