Took a look at ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) recently. This is an interesting company that just launched a nasal-based epinephrine application called neffy late last year. This is an alternative to the needle-based EpiPen for those with acute allergic reactions. Right now, ARS has this market to itself, and epinephrine is a sizable $2-3 billion worldwide market growing at 8+%. However, ARS is presently a one-product company, and there are many similar products in development at other firms. It just doesn't have the kind of competitive protections I want to see from a "Green Dot" pick. I'm also crossing out Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA), a clinical-stage biotech with no steady source of revenues just yet.

Took at look at recent Green Screen addition TKO Holdings, the parent company of the UFC and WWE fighting and wrestling promotions. The company also just recently closed on a large $3.3B acquisition of three sporting-related properties: IMG, a leading sports marketing agency; On Location, which handles hospitality for the world's largest sporting events; and PBR, a pro bull riding promotion. This acquisition explains much of the firm's forward growth rate - organically, UFC and WWE are posting more like 6-7% annual growth. The growth-by-big-acquisition strategy here has also led to a lot of balance sheet debt (close to $3 billion), and poor cash ROIs (~4%). Certainly it owns some well-known brands but there are too many things I don't like to consider a Watch List add. It just isn't for me as an investment.

After yesterday's weekly Green Screen update, I wanted to take a moment and quickly eliminate some of the newer entries that fall into categories that I generally don't want to invest in. First, we have two clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firms to cross out, Kura Oncology (KURA) and Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX). Next, a new oil and gas midstream stock, Excelerate Energy (EE), also gets the boot. Finally, China-based automotive services provider SunCar Tech (SDA) is also eliminated. Not saying any of these are bad companies, or that they won't be good investments, they just fall into industry or geopolitical categories that I'm not interested in investing into at this time.

Sea Limited delivered a strong fiscal year, with sales rising 29% compared to 2023. The strength was particularly evident in Shopee, the e-commerce unit, where revenue increased 38%, orders 33%, and gross merchandise volume 28%. Financial services also performed well, with realized revenue up 35%. Garena, the online gaming division, reported flat sales, but bookings rose 19%, a strong forward indicator. Bookings represent the cash spent on in-game items and are recognized as revenue when used. Given these results, my previous modeling appeared too conservative. After adjusting for more accurate projections, the fair value estimate rises significantly to $101; however, with the stock still trading well above that, SE remains on the Watch List. SE

Celsius reported much improved but still muted results in Q4, with revenue falling 4% year-over-year. It closed the year with 3% growth, most of that due to inventory balancing at Pepsi, but a meaningful portion also due to a general downswing in the energy drink market for the year (many competitors also had poor years). The big news was the acquisition of Alani Nu, an up-and-coming energy brand portfolio especially popular with young women. The purchase price looks reasonable to me at 3x sales, and Alani Nu has a very similar margin profile to existing Celsius. But it is a big swallow at $1.8 billion, including $900 million in new debt and $500 million in dilutive shares. As with most big deals, it hurts the fair value of the company in the short term, and has to perform well to be value-additive in the long term. I've cut the fair value for Celsius to $25 for now. We will see what results look like after the deal closes in Q2. CELH

Autodesk is a classic "stable investment," a dominant force in digital modeling across architecture, construction, engineering, operations, manufacturing, and media/entertainment. With 97% of revenue from recurring cloud software subscriptions and net retention consistently at 100-110%, it remains a reliable choice. Fiscal 2024 results were on target, with revenue up 12%, steady profit margins, and strong cash flows. This quarter, the company initiated a restructuring plan to streamline operations and integrate its "design" and "make" products into a unified, AI-driven cloud platform. As part of this shift, Autodesk announced a 9% workforce reduction, facility consolidations, and other cost-cutting measures—an unfortunate but sometimes necessary step to maintain long-term stability, often reflecting prior mismanagement. The fair value adjusts slightly to $270. ADSK

Snowflake, a data platform company, reported its fiscal year results, with sales growing 29% and free cash flow increasing 14%, resulting in a 24.5% FCF margin. The firm continues to expand primarily within large enterprise companies, as reflected in its 126% net retention rate—indicating that nearly all of its growth comes from existing customers. The number of customers spending over $1 million annually grew 26% to 580. Like many of the stocks we follow, Snowflake is aggressively investing in AI-driven solutions, launching its "Cortex AI" technology to help customers build data agents. Data analysis and comprehension are strong use cases for AI, and I believe these efforts could significantly impact Snowflake’s growth. This has always been a business I like, but it has rarely been priced attractively. That remains the case today, with the stock trading well above my $140 price target. SNOW

I remain a big fan of Nayax, a company specializing in payment solutions for both unattended and attended point-of-sale terminals. For fiscal 2024, revenue grew 34%, recurring revenue increased 47% (now 71% of total revenue), transaction dollars rose 36%, transaction count was up 33%, customer count grew 32%, and revenue per user increased 12%. Net retention remained strong at 129% as the company continued expanding with existing clients. Management is still targeting sustained 35% growth through 2028, with increasing margins. The acquisition of UpPay further strengthens Nayax’s expansion into the nascent Latin American market while accelerating its European presence. Despite a 30% gain since we first highlighted it, the stock still looks significantly undervalued to me—my fair value estimate is $82, yet it currently trades for well under half that. A strong buy! NYAX

We just reviewed VTEX's Q4 and fiscal year results a few days ago (see a few posts below), where I mentioned it was "not yet" cheap enough to buy. Well, thanks to a general market malaise since then, VTEX has fallen in value enough where it now DOES meet our 25% "margin-of-safety" requirement, so I'm adding it to the Buy List today! Read more about this interesting Latin American e-commerce play from its ticker page here: VTEX

Clear Secure, the biometric ID platform that speeds up airport check-in, reported its fiscal year results. Revenue grew 25.6%, with bookings up 17%, while free cash flow rose 37% and margins expanded to nearly 37%. The company remains a strong financial performer, raising its quarterly dividend and declaring a special dividend, bringing its forward total yield to 3.25%. However, underlying metrics remain weak—Clear PLUS (paying) members grew just 9% in 2024, well below past years, and usage declined 13%, with price increases masking some of the softness. I still like Clear Secure, but after revisiting my modeling assumptions, a fair value reduction is warranted. The new target price is $41. The stock still appears attractive at current levels. YOU

VTEX—our Latin American Shopify clone—returned to the Green Screen after this week's update, so let's take a quick look at its fiscal year results. Sales grew 12.5% in 2024, but adjusting for the stronger U.S. dollar, the increase was closer to 18%. Customers generating over $250K in annual recurring revenue rose 23%, while net revenue retention from existing stores held at 104%. These are solid numbers, but the sharp 25%+ appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Brazilian real (BRL) significantly impacted both results and guidance. In BRL, revenue guidance was +14-17%, but in USD, it translated to just ~6%. Currency fluctuations are inevitable, and they tend to balance out over time. That said, VTEX continues to operate well, and I still like the business as originally reviewed. The stock is worth $6.25 and trades at an appealing price—but not quite attractive enough to buy just yet. VTEX

Oddity Tech, our direct-to-consumer cosmetics and wellness supplier, delivered excellent fiscal 2024 results. Sales grew over 27%, driven by strong momentum from both IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild. Operational performance was solid, with gross margins expanding 240 basis points (+2.4%) and free cash flow margin rising to over 20%, up from 16% a year ago. Oddity remains debt-free. I remain highly optimistic about the company—its addressable market is vast, its existing brands are thriving, and two new brands are in development for launch soon. I'm raising my fair value estimate to $63, and the stock looks like a good buy right now. ODD

Coupang—often called the "Amazon of South Korea"—continues to deliver strong results, with fiscal year sales growing 24%, or 29% on a constant-currency basis. Even excluding the Farfetch acquisition, growth remained well above 20%. Gross margins also expanded significantly, rising to 29.2% from 25.4% last year, reflecting strong operations and disciplined pricing. Despite its scale, Coupang still holds just 22% of South Korea's e-commerce market, leaving plenty of room for growth, while its expansion in Taiwan is still in its early stages. Additionally, through R. Lux and Farfetch, Coupang has an opportunity to tap into the global luxury goods market, valued at over $300–350 billion. Given these factors, the fair value estimate increases by a few dollars to $26.50, making the stock look like a compelling buy at current levels. CPNG

Flywire posted solid Q4 and annual results, with revenue up 22% and strong cash flows. Education payments remain its largest segment at 77%, while travel has grown to 13%. However, weak forward guidance of 10-12% growth—well below the 20%+ expected—sent the stock tumbling nearly 50% this year. The slowdown stems from education payment policy changes in Canada and Australia. In response, Flywire is conducting an "operational and business portfolio overview" (essentially tightening expenses) and expanding into travel with its Sertifi acquisition (a hotel property management integrator). While the sell-off seems overdone—our fair value is $15.50—Flywire isn’t a top conviction pick, and we may revisit it for a sell depending on how the year unfolds. FLYW

Zeta Global had a strong year, with revenue up 38%, large customer count rising 15%, and net revenue retention at 114%. Q4 was its best quarter yet, with nearly 50% sales growth. As a leader in AI-driven marketing, Zeta projects 20%+ annual growth, targeting $2 billion in revenue by 2028. However, new details impact fair value: management now expects a 16% free cash flow margin—below my 20% target—and has issued nearly 30 million shares for acquisitions and performance stock units, significantly diluting public shareholders. Accounting for these factors, our fair value drops to $18, aligning with its current trading price. ZETA

Harmony Biosciences reported its Q4 and full-year earnings yesterday. Annual sales grew 23%, an impressive figure for a single orphan drug with a single indication (Wakix for narcolepsy). Management guided for approximately 18% growth in 2025 and expects this indication alone to surpass $1 billion in annual sales. The company’s long-term potential will become clearer this year, as its Phase 3 trial for ZYN002 is set to report initial data in Q3. ZYN002 was acquired through Harmony’s 2023 purchase of Zynerba, targeting Fragile X which represents a similar patient population to narcolepsy, with no currently approved treatments. A positive result could push Harmony’s stock closer to my fair value estimate of $73. HRMY

Took a look at EverQuote (EVER) from the Green Screen. EverQuote is an online platform that allows consumers to shop for and compare insurance plans—primarily auto but also home, life, and health. The company generates revenue by selling lead information to insurers (~74% of sales) and operating a CPC/PPC ad platform (~23%). This is a "toll-booth" style, recurring revenue model, with growth expected at 15-20% annually over the next five years. However, I’m passing. The market has low barriers to entry, is crowded with competitors, and I don’t see strong moat characteristics.

Hims & Hers - our best performing pick ever - reported another outstanding quarter and fiscal year. For the year, revenues were up 69%, with Q4 coming in 95% higher than the comparable quarter last year - its fastest growth quarter of the year. The company has a lot of momentum. Monthly revenue per subscriber was up 19% of the year, 38% for the quarter. HIMS ended the year with 2.2 million subscribers, a 45% increase over last year. Yes, I know the stock has plummeted from $70 down to the low $40's, but the $70 number was just market foolishness over GLP hype. The truth is that less than 15% of Hims & Hers business is GLP drugs, and the company grew revenue 43% even taking that out entirely. With my new (and greatly raised) $35 price target, where it trades now is approaching fair value. This is going to be a wild ride, and my plan is to just ride it out. The trajectory should be up - way up - over time. Let your winners ride! HIMS

MercadoLibre has been one of our best performers and continues to deliver. The firm reported fiscal-year results with revenue up 38% and even stronger free cash flow growth (+59%). The metrics remain excellent across the board: gross merchandise volume in the commerce segment rose 8% in U.S. dollars but 56% in constant currency, while total payment volume in the fintech business increased 33% as reported and 49% in constant currency. These figures highlight the company's resilience despite weakening local currencies. Items shipped grew 44%, ad revenue rose 41% (88% FX neutral), and fintech monthly active users increased 34%. Despite a decade of rapid expansion, MercadoLibre continues to compound its leadership in e-commerce and digital financial services across Latin America, living up to its moniker as the "Amazon of the Amazon." The stock is a buy, currently trading more than 25% below my fair value target of $2,902. MELI

Toast wrapped up a strong 2024, posting its fastest growth rates of the year with 29% revenue growth and 34% annualized recurring revenue growth in Q4. Gross payment volume, its primary revenue driver, rose 26%. The company added 28,000 net new locations, expanding its total base by over 26% to 134,000. Notably, Toast is securing larger chain agreements, including Perkins and Huddle House (500 locations) and Mendocino Farms (70), while also deepening its partnership with Uber Eats. It remains a strong hold for us, though it trades well above my fair value estimate of $30. TOST

Global-e reported its Q4 and fiscal 2024 results, with Q4 delivering strong performance—revenues rose 42%, gross margins expanded by 400 basis points, and gross merchandise volume grew 44%. Fulfillment revenues continued to outpace service revenues, and with a net retention rate of 119%, Global-e demonstrated solid growth within existing accounts. A new partnership with PC accessories giant Logitech marks its entry into the lucrative consumer electronics segment. However, fiscal 2025 revenue guidance was soft due to tariff concerns and the loss of the "de-minimis" exemption, which some import retailers had abused. Despite this, the impact on fair value was minimal, with the estimate dropping just a dollar to $46. GLBE

Mobileye (MBLY) makes the EyeQ system-on-a-chip, embedded in both gas and electric vehicles to enable Level 1 and Level 2 driver-assist features like adaptive cruise control, lane assistance, blind spot monitoring, and emergency braking. These are known as "advanced driver assistance technologies", or ADAS. An estimated 80-90% of revenue comes from selling these chips to major automakers. The company is also entering the full self-driving (FSD) software and data services market, but this remains a small revenue stream, and major EV makers like Tesla and BYD have their own in-house solutions. With no real recurring revenue and Level 3+ technologies moving toward vertical integration, Mobileye is a pass for me.

After some consideration, I've decided to remove the remaining five oil and gas stocks in the Green Screen—specifically, the midstream providers, which handle the transportation and storage of oil and gas between extraction sites and processing or sales points. The appeal of this sector is its volume-based contracts, which provide stability compared to the volatile prices of oil and gas, along with switching costs and, for larger pipeline-based firms, network effects. However, scaling these businesses is extremely capital-intensive, and returns on investment are merely average at best. Additionally, while there has been some renewed focus on fossil fuels, the long-term future of energy clearly lies in solar and other renewables. I'd rather skate to where the puck is going than where it is now.

Airbnb's Q4 and fiscal year results look good. Revenue was up 12% for both, with margins, cash generation, and ROI typically excellent for this very well-run company. We've seen a pickup in share buyback activity as growth has slowed, with shares down over 2.5% last year. Underlying metrics show a 12% increase in nights/experiences booked, with a 1% increase in average rates. Airbnb has revamped its tech stack, allowing it to launch a flurry of new features with many more planned for 2025. This is still an excellent company that I'm happy to hold, even considering likely lower top-line growth going forward. The updated fair value price is $178. ABNB

Paycom ended its fiscal year with a good Q4 that saw revenues rise 14% and strong profitability metrics. The company continues to focus on automation and client ROI as differentiators. This is still a good company that is well-run, but the growth well seems to be drying up. Client count was flat for the year, and revenue guidance for 2025 was just +8%, which was well below my modeling of +11%. This could also be a harbinger of slowing jobs growth. Whatever the case, Paycom is a worthy hold but I wouldn't add money to it. The updated fair value price is $278. PAYC

Monday.com reported an excellent Q4 and fiscal year, with revenue up over 33%, net retention holding steady at 115%, and paying customers generating over $100K in annual recurring revenue soaring 45%. These strong metrics demonstrate that Monday's WorkOS platform continues to gain major traction within large organizations. The company is also well-positioned at the "app layer" of the AI boom, rolling out numerous AI-based enhancements, including agents that can "learn" and perform complex workflow tasks autonomously. App-level AI is poised to capture the most financial value in the long run. I continue to be a big fan of Monday.com, and I’m raising my fair value estimate to $231. MNDY

Vertiv Holdings (VRT) manufactures uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), power distribution units, and thermal management equipment for data centers worldwide. The industry has growth potential, driven by the massive compute build-out required for artificial intelligence and deep learning, which demand significant computing power and energy. This trend increases demand for Vertiv’s products. However, the company doesn’t fit our “Green Dot” stock profile. Only about 20% of its revenue is somewhat recurring (from maintenance contracts and spare parts), and I don’t see a clear economic moat. Competition is intense, with larger players like Schneider Electric, Eaton, and ABB. It’s a pass.

Fortinet has quietly been a very strong performer in our portfolio, a double since being recommended 2 years ago and trouncing the market by nearly 50%. It finished its 2024 fiscal year with a very strong Q4, as revenue grew 17%, gross margins continued to expand (by 350 basis points!), and the firm continues its build out of cloud-based security edge offerings (SASE, +28%) and AI-driven security ops (+32% in annual recurring revenue). Fortinet is one of few companies with a strong offering in both the "new age" SASE/SecOps security model, and the traditional "perimeter security" hardware-based model. The stock continues to be a strong hold but priced a bit above the fair value of $102. FTNT

Chromadex (CDXC) makes Tru Niagen, a daily supplement that raises NAD+ levels in the body. Higher NAD+ levels are purported to help with anti-aging, better energy, a higher metabolism, better brain function, and other benefits (most of which are unproven). There looks to be good market growth here (~15% annually), and recurring revenue as it is taken daily. Chromadex has an exclusive patent for the key ingredient in their formulation, which provides some moat protection. The company is also debt-free. It is an interesting stock, but I'm going to pass for now. Financially, the firm hasn't shown the ability to consistently generate strong cash flows, and it is unclear just how large the potential market can actually get.

Alphabet (Google) announced its Q4 and fiscal year results recently. The company reported 14% revenue growth for the year, with solid growth both in its core search, Youtube, and devices unit (+10% growth, 88% of sales) and Google Cloud (+30%). Profit margins improved over a year ago, and buybacks were effective in reducing share count by 5.5% on the year. The firm announced a big $75 million capital expenditure target for 2025 (50% higher than 2024) to capture the burgeoning opportunities in AI services. Google stock looks like an excellent opportunity, trading more than 35% under our new $325 fair value price. It is a buy right now. GOOG

We had originally looked into AMD as Watch List stock, given its strong leadership and opportunities in AI. But there are just too many things I don't like about this CPU and GPU maker after reviewing Q4 results. The Xilinx deal was clearly a massive over-pay, hurting AMD's return on capital for years to come. I'm also not seeing cash flow through like it needs to, to justify anything close to the current valuation. Finally, this is a hardware maker prone to the wild cyclical swings of the semiconductor industry. There are just too many "dings" on the stock to continue watching it, so it moves to the "reject" pile.

AAON makes high-efficiency commercial HVAC equipment, primarily rooftop units which account for 70% of sales. The company has been seeing sales growth over 15% as a full-blown commercial replacement cycle runs its course, and demand for more energy-efficient units has driven business to AAON. However, this is not much of a recurring revenue business (units last 20 years), and there are no particular moat factors here, either. It is an easy Green Screen "pass" call. Not saying it's a "bad" company or anything, it just doesn't meet our investment criteria.

We just recently reviewed Taiwan Semi's fiscal year results, which re-iterated all of the positives we saw in the initial review. TSMC continues to be the semiconductor foundry of choice for all of the most cutting-edge applications in tomorrow's technologies, like self-driving vehicles, high-performance computing, and AI. It stands almost alone in its technological dominance, carving itself out an enormous moat that only a couple firms in the world would even think about challenging. Now trading more than 25% under our fair value, it gets added to the Buy List today! TSM

I've written in the past about why the oil and gas industry is a mixed bag for investors. The exploration and production (E&P or "upstream") and refining ("downstream") areas are far too dependent on commodity prices to be reliable investments. Equipment sales similarly are a boom-and-bust kind of business with limited recurring revenues. Midstream (transportation and storage) is more interesting as it relies mostly on volume-based contracts which are less volatile. Given this, I'm "crossing out" a number of Green Screen entries in upstream and equipment categories, while leaving the midstream operators for now.

ServiceNow (NOW) reported a good fiscal 2024, with revenues up over 22%, along with strong cash flow margins and excellent efficiency metrics. The firm is lining itself up as a leader in AI-based solutions for enterprise business, particularly in the service space, which I think is a "slam-dunk" application of the technology. 12-month backlog grew 19%, signaling continued out-sized revenue growth, and $5 million dollar customers were up 21%, further strengthening the company's switching cost moat. I continue to believe ServiceNow is one of the highest quality companies in our entire portfolio. The fair value gets a substantial increase up to $828, although the stock is a bit too hot right now for new money. NOW

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) recently reported its Q4 and fiscal year earnings. For the year, revenue was up 34%, gross margins improved about 150 basis points, and the firm continues to generate excellent free cash flow. With over 50% of its revenue now coming from 5nm and under chips (where only it and Samsung compete), the moat looks as strong as ever. AI inference in all its forms should continue to drive robust chip demand across data center, smartphone, and even PC spaces. While the firm is not without its risks, this is a "high confidence" stock that - thanks to the "Deepseek freak-out" - is priced at an attractive price. The new fair value target is $269, right on the cusp of our 25% margin of safety requirement. It is very close to a "buy" and could get there within the next few days. TSM

Byrna Technologies (BYRN) is certainly an interesting company, making "less-than-lethal" CO2-based self-defense launchers. Basically, they are air-powered handguns and rifles that fire ballistic and chemical projectiles that are designed to stop would-be attackers without causing death or lasting bodily harm. Revenue has been growing rapidly and looks to double this year, mainly on the back of e-commerce sales directly to consumers (they are legal without a background check in all 50 states). While growth is good, and the product intriguing, I don't see any recurring revenue characteristics, or any particular moat potential. As the market grows, so will competition. Legacy firearm manufacturers are stagnant growth-wise, and it is unclear the ultimate market potential here. For those reasons, it is a pass for me.

Innodata (INOD) generates revenue predominantly from AI model "training" for tech giants, accounting for 50-60% of its sales, alongside more traditional digital data solutions like data entry, conversion, and media production services. The company focuses on executing one-off projects for large clients in the technology, publishing, and media sectors. The business has experienced significant growth in recent years, driven by the high demand for AI large language model (LLM) "training," which essentially involves feeding vast amounts of data to these models. However, Innodata lacks long-term recurring revenue, significant switching costs, or a clear economic moat. I believe the company is capitalizing on a surge in demand for AI training, which might not persist. Even if demand continues, Innodata will likely face increasing competition. Lacking many of the characteristics we seek in investments, it's a pass for me.

I've previously written about avoiding mining investments in general, as they usually rise or fall with base commodity prices that are extremely unpredictable. After the recent Green Screen changes, a few more miners showed up. After briefly reviewing each of them, I think they all fall into the "unpredictable" category, so I'm eliminating them from consideration here. The stocks are: Ramaco Resources (METC and METCB), McEwen Mining (MUX), Osisko (OR), Silvercorp (SVM), and Sigma Lithium (SGML). Additionally, I'm removing Alaska Airlines (ALK), which should be no surprise as I've frequently written about my disdain for investing in the airline industry.

Quick update to eliminate a few more Green Screen Stocks for consideration. First, I'm passing on D-MARKET (HEPS) and Turkcell Iletisim (TKC). The former is an e-commerce operation not unlike Amazon, and the second is a leading cell service provider, both operating in the country of Turkey. I don't have any particular issue with the companies, but Turkey isn't one of my favorite countries to invest in, mainly because of a history of rampant inflation and currency depreciation, even recently. The third stock I'm passing on is Orla Mining, another gold mining stock, for the same reasons mentioned a couple weeks ago. Will continue keeping an eye out for interesting Green Screen options for the Watch List!

Adobe wrapped up its fiscal year with its usual solid results, reporting 11% revenue growth, a 3.5% share reduction, and strong free cash generation of $7.9 billion. Creative (Photoshop, etc.), its largest unit at 59% of sales, grew sales by 11% for the year. Digital Experience (marketing creation tools, accounting for 25% of revenue) was up by 10%. Document Cloud (Acrobat and e-signature offerings) saw a strong 18% increase. The backlog ended the year up 16%. While the blowup of the Figma deal certainly crimps Adobe's growth potential in the near term, the firm continues to be an incredible, predictable business that I'm happy to hold. After updating the valuation model and incorporating the latest data, I'm raising the fair value to $648. The shares represent substantial value at current prices. ADBE

The Green Screens have been a good way to tell which commodities are hot at any given point in time. A few years ago we saw a bunch of coal stocks show up as the outbreak of the Russia/Ukraine war spiked natural gas prices. That conflict also led to increases in uranium prices that led to a few of those miners getting screened. Recently, we've seen a number of gold miners (Alamos Gold, New Gold, Royal Gold, and Anglogold) show up, due to the 30% increase in gold prices this year to record highs. I've never been a fan of investing in commodity stocks, just because prices can be so volatile and unpredictable. That doesn't change now. I'm removing all 4 of these gold mining stocks from consideration today.

Impinj (PI) sells and "Internet of Things (IoT)" platform consisting of small, cheap RFID identification chips, along with the readers and software to track them. This allows customers to quickly manage large inventories of items, a key business challenge for many industries like retail, logistics, pharmaceuticals, etc. There's no doubt this is an attractive solution with a burgeoning number of use cases - Impinj should be able to grow at good rates. My issue is the business itself, which has shown little ability to eke out a profit margin or generate free cash flow for almost a decade. There is little profit in selling RFIDs or readers, and Impinj's software platform hasn't been fully realized. That makes it very difficult to pinpoint a reasonable value for the stock. For those reasons, I'm passing on it.

Hims & Hers delivered yet another blowout result for Q3 - this one the most impressive yet. Revenue growth accelerated to 77%, on the back of both the GLP-1 weight loss drug launch, and the 44% subscriber growth it helped drive. Even ex-GLP sales, revenues soared 40%. The weight loss drug launch has also supercharged the Hers brand, giving the company yet another growth avenue. The stock is up over 150% since we added it a year ago, but now looks like as good a time as ever to add. The fair value gets a substantial bump from $21 to $28. HIMS

Alphabet (i.e., Google) reported Q3 results that were strong across the board. Revenue was up 15%, led by Google Cloud growing 35% year-over-year as businesses spend to build out their AI infrastructure. The core business (search, subscriptions, platforms, YouTube, etc.) still grew a healthy 13%, and remains 87% of revenues. The company continues to expand margins (op margin up to 32.3%, vs. 27.8% a year ago) and buy back shares (down 2.2% year-over-year). Pretty much the results were are looking for from the company, but the market is still ahead of the value. I'm bumping the fair value price up a few bucks to $127. Google will remain on the Watch List. GOOG

Took a look at NAPCO Security (NSSC). The company makes alarm, access, and security systems, selling mostly to commercial customers (80% of sales). While hardware sales are still the bulk of business, recurring service fees have rapidly risen to 40% of revenues, from just 24% in 2020. Underlying markets are growing at 8-10% annually, a healthy rate, driven largely by a migration to cellular data for connected devices. I think NAPCO is a solid consideration, but a few things prevent an addition to the Watch List. For one, competition is strong, with Honeywell, United Technologies, and Siemens just a few huge competitors. Two, while the company is founder-led, most of the management team is into their 60's and 70's, making near-term transition a likelihood. Take a closer look at NAPCO if you like it, for me it's a mild pass.

ServiceNow continues its roll as a predictable, stable, rapid growth firm - and the market is rewarding it. Sales were up 22% in the quarter, with margins expanding significantly and free cash flow more than doubling from a year ago. This is an "under-the-radar" AI leader, with automated service desk actions being a fantastic use case for the technology. Current backlog grew a healthy 26%, with total backlog up 36% over last year at this point. A firm truly hitting on all cylinders, I'm hiking the fair value target up to $723. The market is way ahead of us on this one. Our position has close to tripled, and the stock now looks overvalued, but we will continue to hold it. NOW

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) develops and markets medicines for pain management, focused largely on extended release formulations of addictive opioid-based drugs. Currently, the firm sells 3 drugs, each contributing about 30% of revenue. Xtampza ER is an extended release version of oxycodone. Nucynta ER is a similar formulation of tapentadol, another powerful opioid. Belbuca is a form of buprenorphine, a synthetic opioid that can also be highly addictive. I have a few concerns with investing in this one. First, after the recent purchase of Ironshore to add ADHD drug Journay ER, Collegium will have a substantial amount of debt and only about a 2x interest coverage ratio (that's risky). Second, there is board room drama, with former CEO Joe Ciaffoni forced out in May by founder Michael Heffernan. And finally, about 1/3rd of current sales are at risk in the next few years as Nucynta goes off-patent. Just too many issues with this one. I'm passing on adding it to the Watch List.

Astrana Health (ASTH) is a healthcare management company, providing a technology and solutions platform for both primary care and specialty physicians, as well as owning some of their own medical offices. The firm currently operates in 3 states (CA, NV, and TX), but is expanding into several more with the pending purchase of Collaborative Health Systems. This was a close call, as there is plenty of growth potential, the network is sticky (98% provider retention), and revenues are recurring in the "full-risk" model where coverage pays a fixed fee per patient. However, growth will largely be through acquisitions, which will (and has) result in low ROIs. I'm also not a huge fan of the 87% cut of revenue paid by Medicare and Medicaid. Astrana is largely exposed to political whims around reimbursement rates. It gets a pass, but investors could do worse, and the stock is reasonably valued right now.

Blue Bird is one of the largest makers of school buses in the U.S. Its current growth spurt is being driven by the alternative fuel bus segment (particularly electric and propane), and the government's $5 billion EPA clean bus program. School districts are jumping at this incentive to replace some of the 200,000 or so obsolete buses still in operation across the country. However, by our criteria it isn't a particularly attractive business. There is no recurring revenue, and growth is clearly coming from a limited-time (5 year) incentive. While Blue Bird is the (current) leader in the segment, there is plenty of competition and no real competitive moat. That makes it very hard to come up with a reasonable fair value, and sets the business up for considerable volatility. It gets a pass.

Adobe performed pretty much as expected in Q3, with revenues up 11% overall and double-digit growth across all of its varied business units. The firm is emerging as a leader in what I think of as "practical AI" - using the technology to assist in the workflows of its creative tools. Backlog grew 15%, a good sign for growth moving forward. Adobe continues to be a core investment option, and the stock is buyable at current prices. My fair value is $594. ADBE

Real Brokerage is another contender in the ever-expanding roster of technology-focused real estate brokerages that have proliferated over the last decade or so. The business is no different than that of a traditional brokerage - the company makes fees off commissions from sold homes, distributing a portion to agents. The angle here is that Real develops technology to improve agent's performance while avoiding brick-and-mortar operations, allowing it to expand to new markets rapidly. I'm passing on this as there is no recurring revenue model, no moat, and competition is fierce, running the gamut from traditional brokerages to direct "virtual" competitors like eXp and Fathom to self-service platforms like Redfin and Opendoor. Few stocks in this space have ever done very well over the long term.

Well-known online sports betting outfit DraftKings (DKNG) recently appeared on the Green Screens after reaching cash profitability over the prior 12 months. There are some things to like. DK has grown over 60% in each of the last 2 years, and is tracking for 30%+ growth in each of the next 2. DraftKings has fought with rival FanDuel for #1 market share for the last several years (both have 30-35% share). That said, there are more things not to like. The space is getting increasingly crowded, with aggressive entries from known entities like MGM, Caesar's, ESPN/Barstool, and others. There are no switching costs or any other kind of moat. The legalization wave has pretty much run its course, so there aren't many new states to expand into - industry growth forecasts are good but not great at 7.5% annually through 2029. And DraftKings, despite huge scale, is still only marginally cash profitable. It isn't for me, and GreenDot Stocks is passing on it.

Smartsheet, the collaborative work management software provider, reported Q2 results that were pretty much in-line with expectation. Revenues were up 17%, with average revenue per customer up 16%, and net retention of 113%. All of these are good figures, showing Smartsheet as a stable, reasonably modest growth firm. I did like that their largest cohort, customers over $100k annually, grew 23% - these are your stickiest and most-likely-to-expand clients. This continues to look like a solid choice on the Green Screens but it does trade a good bit over the (re-iterated) $45 fair value target. We will leave it on the Watch List. SMAR

GitLab, the development/security/operations (DevSecOps) platform for software development, reported a strong Q2, with revenues up 31% and impressive operating margin improvements. Growth is still looking good, with a 51% increase in total backlog, and 42% increase in current backlog (< 1 year). Also impressive was a 33% increase in customers with over $100k in annual recurring revenue - these are "sticky" customers GitLab can grow organically within. To that point, dollar-based net retention was 126%, showing both a firm that isn't losing customers and also growing over 25% within them. A good quarter, but also pretty close to my modeling. The fair value gets only a slight bump up to $45. GTLB

Zscaler reported a 30% increase in sales for Q4, with improving cash flow margins. Deferred revenue (future sales) grew 32%. The firm exceeded the high end of its guidance on all metrics. Business looks strong, with its security gateways surpassing half a trillion (!) daily transactions, and developments in AI/ML around data protection and URL categorization. The stock is down due to reduced guidance for 2025 sales - 21% growth at the high point is a drastic deceleration from 34% in 2024. Management explained this due to turnover in the sales organization and expected slow rollout of new products. I'm not too concerned (it might be a little "sand-bagged") but we will keep an eye on it. Improved cash profitability and lower dilution into the model actually leads to a rise in the fair value to $167. After the recent drop, the stock looks buyable but not cheap. ZS

CrowdStrike finally reported its Q2 results. I was curious to see any early impact the 7/19 global IT outage might have caused. Results were not affected too much, as would be expected (since it happened so late in the quarter), with revenues up 32% and strong cash profitability. Forward numbers are a mixed bag. Ending annualized recurring revenue grew 32%, so backlog growth was strong. But you can see some weakness in CrowdStrike's forward guidance, which came in about $100 million lower than before. I've updated the fair value target to assume muted growth through 2025, and rebounding afterwards. CrowdStrike stays on the Watch List, but the higher risks and lower growth here make a fair value cut warranted. The new number is $215. CRWD

Autodesk is in the portfolio due to its super-predictable results and dominant economic moat. Q2 was another case of "business as usual", with revenues up 12% and backlog up 11%, right on the modeling. The firm is still experiencing a bit of a cash flow lag as it transitions to a new transaction model in the U.S., but I expect it to work through back into the low-mid 30% free cash margin range. Management upped its revenue guidance for the year. The stock trades right in the vicinity of our $263 fair value price. ADSK

Recently re-instated watch list stock Veeva Systems reported its Q2 this week. Sales were up 15%, and profitability rose significantly. This steady and predictable provider of clinical and business software for life sciences firm has a very wide moat and is methodically expanding its product suite into new areas. I love the company but the stock is rarely inexpensive enough to buy. The fair value is $188. After earnings, the stock is trading a good bit above that. We'll leave it on watch. VEEV

Workday reported its usual steady, predictable, impressive quarter for Q2. Revenues were up about 17%, and the firm delivered both GAAP and cash flow margin improvements. Total backlog continues to grow nicely, up 21%. We're starting to see more aggressive share repurchase activity (1.4 million shares in the quarter), which is easing one of the historical challenges in the stock (dilution). Workday is about as reliable as they come. The fair value gets a slight bump up to $239. WDAY

Snowflake, our data storage and compute provider, reported what I thought was a solid Q2, with revenues up 29% and good cash profitability metrics. Net retention was 127%, roughly in line with Q1. The firm grew backlog 48% and customers over $1 million expanded to 510. Forward guidance for the year was on target. Operationally, things are progressing fine. I realized that I never updated the stock for the departure of CEO Frank Slootman back in March. Snowflake is now led by former AI chief Sridhar Ramaswamy, who only joined the firm a little over a year ago (via the Neeva acquisition). That makes leadership more of a wildcard than we initially projected. I'm holding the line on Snowflake's fair value price at $140. The stock looks decently cheap right now. SNOW

Sprout Social's Q2 was a mixed bag for me. The firm seems to be executing on its "large client" strategy, growing customers over $50k annually by 38%. Backlog growth was strong too, up 43% year-over-year. At large, the 25% revenue growth figure was better-than-expected. We still are not seeing a whole lot of cash profitability here - it's looking like a 3rd straight year of declining cash flow. With a transition away from a founder-CEO arrangement, middling cash generation (from what should be a profitable model), and a disappearance from the Green Screens, I'm going to remove Sprout Social from the Watch List for now. We may re-visit it at a later time. SPT

Global-e, the global e-commerce enabler, reported 26% revenue growth in Q2, with improved gross margins and cash flow. Several brands were onboarded, including some well known ones like Victoria's Secret, shoe maker Clark's, and famous sports franchise FC Barcelona. I'm still a fan of Global-e, but they did cut their fiscal year revenue targets as consumer spending has eased more than expected into the 2nd half of the year. This is consistent with some other reports we've seen. The profitability improvements mostly offset the growth weakness, so the fair value only gets a very small cut to $43.50. GLBE

Sea Limited, the southeast Asian e-commerce and fintech leader, reported Q2 results late last week. Shopee, the e-commerce arm, performed well, growing revenue 34%, orders 40%, and merchandise volume 29%, continuing an acceleration of growth that started late last year. Shopee accounted for 74% of total revenue. Digital financial services (mostly consumer loans) grew sales 21% and reported a reasonable 1.3% non-performing loans book. This unit was 14% of total sales. Garena, the gaming unit, saw declining revenues but good forward metrics, with bookings up 21%, active users 19%, and paying users 22%. That bodes well for future revenue results. Across the board, a good report. The fair value gets a slight bump up to $73.50. SE

Enlight's Q2 report looks good to me. Several in-development projects reached their commercial operations date (COD) in the quarter which, combined with strong spot pricing, led to a 61% increase in revenues. Management re-iterated its modeling for about 38-39% revenue growth in 2024. Its large U.S. project, Atrisco, completed construction in the quarter and will come online in Q3. Just for comparison sake, Atrisco is a 364MW solar generation plant, compared to about 180MW of new capacity that came online this quarter. Several big projects in the U.S. and elsewhere continue to progress in development. This still looks like an attractive play in the renewable energy space. I'm raising the fair value from $16 to $18. ENLT

Harmony Biosciences, the "orphan drug" maker of WAKIX / pitolisant, a leading narcolepsy treatment, reported Q2 results. Everything continues to look good here, with another 29% revenue growth quarter and strong cash flows. All of its development programs are progressing, with a new drug application for pitolisant in Idiopathic Hypersomnia (IH) scheduled for Q4, FDA approval for pediatric narcolepsy secured and commercial launch commenced, WAKIX again upheld in patent court, and good early results for a high-dose program that could extend pitolisant's contributions into the 2040's. Development of the Fragile X and epilepsy portfolios continues to progress. Everything looks on track to our thesis here. Just a small tweak to the fair value, it gets a dollar bump up to $66. HRMY

Monday.com, a SaaS provider of "Work OS" business management tools, reported another great quarter earlier this week. Revenues were up close to 35%, with expanding profitability and continued strong free cash flows. The firm is also seeing success moving upmarket to larger enterprises, with its largest ever deal closed during the quarter, and a 49% increase in customers paying over $100k annually. I've mentioned many times how larger customers in software are far stickier and far more likely to expand usage organically. Everything is looking good here, but the stock price has soared past the present value, in my opinion. The fair value is $195. MNDY

Flywire, the payments processor specializing in education and business-to-business, reported its Q2 results recently. There was some good here - 22% revenue growth on the back of 19% growth in payment volume, and improved margins. There were also a few things I didn't like - continued massive share dilution (share count was up 12%), and cash from operations sliding back into negative territory for the second quarter in a row. The company announced yet another acquisition, this one of B2B receivables platform Invoiced. A $150 million share repurchase program might take an edge out of share dilution, but it won't reduce shares. Flywire is on probation. I'm dropping the fair value to $19, and this is one that might be sold if some of these trends continue. FLYW

Coupang's Q2 results were good, with revenues up 25.4%, an acceleration from +22.6% in Q1. 18% of that growth was organic, not including the contributions from Farfetch which was acquired in late Q1. Product customers grew 12%, and Coupang's "Developing Offerings" (which includes Coupang Eats, Play, Fintech, and its Taiwanese efforts) expanded 180%. Gross margins were also good, up about 3% to 29.3%. We are still seeing the firm work through costs related to Farfetch - the quarter was just barely GAAP profitable, and cash profitability continues to trend below pre-acquisition levels. We will keep an eye on this, but I'm not overly concerned about it right now. The fair value gets a couple dollar bump up to $23.50. CPNG

Not many people talk about Fortinet, but the company is an impressive player in the cybersecurity space, one of the few that covers the gamut from traditional "perimeter security" hardware to the newer "secure access service edge", or SASE, architecture used to protect access to cloud-based applications. For some time, we've seen Fortinet shift into the latter, which makes sense as that is where the growth is. It has come at a decline in the former. Still, Q2 shows the company is executing well, with 11% revenue growth, substantial EBITDA margin improvement (9 percentage points!), and strong cash flows. The market finally took notice, bumping the stock up close to 20%. It still looks undervalued to me, with a new fair value of $93/share. FTNT

Toast, our restaurant management platform provider, reported a solid quarter on the face of it, with revenues up 27% and annual recurring revenue up 29%. Payment volume processed grew 26%, and total locations using the platform expanded 29%. These are all signs of a growing, healthy business. The firm achieved GAAP profitability for the first time, and free cash flow generation continues to strengthen. One concern is the share dilution rate - share count bloated by 11% this quarter. Investors have to be wary of this as it "waters down" the benefits of the company's growth for existing shareholders. Adjusting my model for it, I think a slight cut in the fair value is warranted. I'm lowering it by a buck down to $28.50. That said, Toast stock still looks buyable at current prices. TOST

Mercadolibre put forth another excellent quarter in Q2. Sales were up 42%, on the back of a 36% growth in total payment volume in the Fintech business, and 20% gross merchandise volume growth in the Commerce segment. The ads business, a relatively new one, was up 51%, reached 2% of GMV, and just expanded into Disney+ in Latin America. Truly the "Amazon of Latin America", and pretty much the PayPal too, Mercadolibre dominates e-commerce AND digital payments in Brazil and Mexico, and doesn't seem to be slowing down any time soon. It gets another fair value bump to $2,168. The stock continues to look like a buy. MELI

Clear Secure (YOU) has always had a puzzling valuation to me, given the firm's continued growth and voluminous cash flow generation. Q2 was another good one: revenues were up 25%, paid members grew 15%, total members (including free) were up a very impressive 39%, and platform uses grew 34%. Those last 2 numbers are a testament to some of the partners Clear is starting to add, including Public.com, Home Depot, and LinkedIn. - we're starting to see the optionality in the platform come into play. I would like to see retention start to improve (it was a bit down again at 83.7%), but price hikes are offsetting the effects of that. Overall, I still like Clear and continue to see it as undervalued, even after a big increase in the share price post-report. It gets a couple dollar fair value bump to $48. YOU

Celsius reported Q2 sales growth of just over 23%, a far cry from the 100% figures we saw last year and even the 40%+ number in Q1. The energy drink category itself has seen slowing growth as part of general consumer pullback trend being reported in Q2, and Celsius is still working through Pepsi's massive inventory channel stocking in the back half of 2023. Underlying numbers still look healthy, with end retail sales in the U.S. up 37%, and a 1.4% dollar share increase in the category. Clearly my growth expectations had gotten too high on this one, and I'll admit it is a difficult one to pin a model down on. That said, I do believe the market has over-corrected and CELH looks like a good buy at current prices. The fair value gets a major haircut down to $56. I still don't see any substantial red flags from a business perspective, this looks like more of a weakening macro story at present. CELH

Airbnb reported its Q2 results last night, and they were disappointing, with the stock falling over 15% in pre-market trading today. Revenue came in at +11%, which was a touch below the 13% figure the Street was looking for. Underlying metrics show that nights booked were up only 9%, with particular weakness in the U.S. Indeed, management mentioned that they were seeing shorter booking lead times and slowing travel demand in the U.S., a possible portent of an economic slowdown. Discretionary expenses like travel usually are the first to decline. Given this, it is prudent to pull back on near-term growth expectations for Airbnb. The fair value price gets a cut down to $162. That said, trading in the low $100's, ABNB looks like a good value for long-term holding. ABNB

Another excellent report from HIMS, which has been one of our best-performing stocks this year. Revenue growth accelerated to 52% in Q2, up from 46% in Q1, as the launch of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and continued momentum in its other categories drew users to the platform. Subscribers were up an impressive 43% year-over-year. Management continues to see opportunities in expanding its existing offerings as well as adding new health verticals. HIMS is still a great growth stock, but the market has caught up to the value somewhat. It still looks attractive at current prices. I'm raising the fair value from $17 up to $21 per share. HIMS

Like Visa, Mastercard is a predictable firm that's almost "boring" in its consistency (but great for shareholders!). In its Q2 report, the firm grew revenues 11%, on the back of a 9% increase in purchase dollar volume, 11% increase in transactions processed, and 17% increase in cross-border payment fees. The company's value-added services and solutions (non-payment processing stuff) grew 18% year-over-year. And Mastercard continues to return voluminous amounts of capital to shareholders, buying back $2.6 billion in shares (share count was down 2% year-over-year) and paying out $615 million in dividends. I'm re-iterating a $459 fair value. MA

Paycom delivered 9% revenue growth in Q2, with a solid 21.7% free cash margin. This is a pretty reliable company going through a bit of a revenue lull as its efficient BETI platform saves its customers money, but costs Paycom error correction revenue. That's ok with me - doing right by your customers at the cost of short-term sales is good business. The company also doubled its buyback authorization, a good move with the stock trading 40% under our fair value. Paycom is also back to a single founder-CEO arrangement after co-CEO Chris Thomas abruptly left in May. I'm ok with that - founder Chad Richison knows what he's doing - but it does raise a bit of concern about eventual succession. I'm raising the fair value by a few bucks to $286. PAYC

Atlassian reported 20% revenue growth in Q4, with strong cash generation. This largely cloud subscription business is predictable and incredibly sticky, creating a steady and reliable stream of business. The company rolled out new features like Rovo (an AI-driven agent), combining JIRA's project and work management tools into one, and more. Customers spending over $10,000 annually grew 18%, and those spending $1 million or more grew 48%. This is great - big customers are the "stickiest" of all. Finally, Atlassian has set itself up to enter the government markets, a nice untapped vertical. The firm continues to execute and the latest sell-off looks like a great opportunity to add. I'm raising the fair value price to $227. TEAM

Pinterest reported its Q2 results recently. Everything we see is pretty much right to our expectations, including 21% revenue growth and improving free cash flows (a margin of 24.2% vs. sub-20% for 2023). Management believes its efforts to improve ad performance are paying off, as the company continues to drive both user traffic (monthly active users up 12%), and revenue per user (up 16% in the U.S.). Pinterest is executing a nice turnaround under CEO Bill Ready. With the stock price significantly down after the quarter, the stock trades right about at our re-iterated $29 fair value. PINS